BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//SPE WA - ECPv6.18.0//NONSGML v1.0//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://www.spe-wa.org X-WR-CALDESC:Events for SPE WA REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H X-Robots-Tag:noindex X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Australia/Perth BEGIN:STANDARD TZOFFSETFROM:+0800 TZOFFSETTO:+0800 TZNAME:AWST DTSTART:20250101T000000 END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT DTSTART;TZID=Australia/Perth:20260210T164500 DTEND;TZID=Australia/Perth:20260210T193000 DTSTAMP:20260122T005323Z CREATED:20251110T034756Z LAST-MODIFIED:20260122T005323Z UID:41656-1770741900-1770751800@www.spe-wa.org SUMMARY:Persistent Bias in Probabilistic Production Forecasting and Simple Methods to Overcome It DESCRIPTION:                         *****  Distinguished Lecturer  *****\n  \nSociety of Petroleum Engineers Western Australia is proud to present the details of our February 2026 SPE WA Technical Evening Meeting. \n  \n                       *****  Please Note Venue Change  *****\nNew Venue: Pulse Technology Hub\,  915 Hay St. Perth \n  \nAbout the Presentation:\nUnbiased probabilistic production forecasts are a crucial component in making value-creating investment decisions\, but typical methods result in persistent\, value-destroying biases. There are quick and easy ways to make accurate\, unbiased forecasts. \nIncreased awareness of uncertainty\, combined with increasingly sophisticated tools and models for quantifying it\, is causing a shift from deterministic to probabilistic production forecasting. For these forecasts to lead to better investment decisions (e.g. assessing how much it’s worth paying to reduce uncertainty\, or incorporating flexibility to manage it)\, they need to be an accurate (unbiased) representation of the uncertainty. However\, our industry has a general history of overconfidence (ranges too narrow) and\, more damaging for value creation\, optimism (consistent over-estimation). \nA large dataset of historical probabilistic production forecasts was investigated for potential bias by comparing them with actual outcomes. They were found to be both optimistic and overconfident\, bringing into question their usefulness for decision-making and the value of the sophisticated uncertainty modeling techniques that were used to generate them. \nFortunately\, there are quick and easy methods for creating accurate probabilistic forecasts. We describe these and show that they would have produced accurate forecasts for our case study fields (they do not make use of knowing the actual outcomes!). \nFinally\, preliminary results from a similar analysis of renewables projects indicate that the same problems exist. This could significantly impact government and company investment decisions and policy development in renewable projects. \n  \nAbout the Distinguished Lecturer:\nReidar Bratvold is a Professor of Investment & Decision Analysis at the University of Stavanger\, specializing in decision analysis\, data analytics\, and behavioral challenges in decision-making. After 15 years of industry experience in technical and leadership roles\, Reidar transitioned to academia\, where he has contributed significantly to his fields of expertise. He co-authored ‘Making Good Decisions\,’ has served as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer\, and received the 2017 SPE Management & Information Award. A Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals and the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences\, Reidar earned his PhD in Engineering and MSc in Mathematics from Stanford University. \n  \nAbout the Event\nPrice:             Early Bird SPE Member        $65 \n                       Early Bird Non-Member         $80 \n                       SPE Member                          $75\n                       Non-Member                          $90 \nDate:              Tuesday\, 10 February 2026 \nLocation:       Pulse Technology Hub\nAddress:       915 Hay St\, Perth WA \nTime:             4:45pm – 5:00pm Registration & Networking.\nTime:             5:00pm – 5:50pm Opening remarks and presentation.\nTime:             5:50pm – 6:00pm Q&A Session.\nTime:             6:00pm – 7:30 pm  Networking drinks & nibbles. \nFree tickets are available for Students. SPE WA in conjunction with our sponsors is kindly sponsoring students to attend the monthly technical events. Please apply through your Student Chapter. URL:https://www.spe-wa.org/event/persistent-bias-in-probabilistic-production-forecasting-and-simple-methods-to-overcome-it/ LOCATION:Pulse Technology Hub\, 915 Hay St\, Perth WA 6000\, Perth\, 6000\, Australia CATEGORIES:Technical Program ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/gif:https://www.spe-wa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Featured-Image-10-Feb-2026-2.gif ORGANIZER;CN="Jack Harfoushian":MAILTO:jackharfoushian@gmail.com END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR